"One thing on your [Jon Ritchie's] numbers deal, because I'm a math guy too. They [the Falcons] have gone for it twice earlier, similar situation, you said that there is a 66.1% probability [sic] of picking it up ... Here's why you don't go for it: they've tried it twice, they've made it twice [earlier in the game], it's probability. Because if you're sitting at a blackjack table and you're playing odds, you're playing three times, and the law of your averages tells you, it's simple math if you try it three times you're going to make it twice and miss it once, and that's exactly how it played out."
Jay then apologizes to Skip Bayless, I guess for being too "mathy". He should be sorry not for using math, but for using math poorly.